The Deep Dive: Week 9

Originally published at: https://esportsone.com/blog/lol-fantasy-deep-dive-week-9-spring-2020/

Finding Value in E1 Fantasy LoL

Winning at daily or weekly fantasy is all about finding the best way to distribute your available salary. You can’t just pick the highest-scoring players without any constraints; you need to balance price against reward. In a season-long weekly format like E1 Fantasy, that search for value becomes even more important than in “traditional” DFS, because the goal is to earn points consistently, not just give yourself the best chance of finishing atop the leaderboard in any given day or week.

Back-of-the-napkin methods for finding value for your salary dollars can work reasonably well, but with all of the actual Spring 2020 data at my fingertips, it’s time to tear up the napkins and do some real analysis. My core questions are:

  • What is a good return on investment for a value pick?
  • Who have been the best value picks so far this season?

In the tables and discussion below, I’ve listed out the relative average value of each player, measured as average points earned each week per $100k of salary. In other words, I’ve taken the total points earned by each player each week, divided that by their salary for the week (measured in units of $100,000 to make the numbers easier to compare), and then averaged across all eight weeks.

The tl;dr is that you should use a target of 14.4 points per $100,000 of salary (or 1.4 points per $10k) to make a comparison between your big-budget and low-budget picks and decide which will be more worthwhile to your lineup.

Standard Points-per-Salary Value

The following table shows some overall averages from Spring 2020 weeks 1 to 8 of the LCS and LEC.

Overall Averages

Salary Pts per Game Pts per $100k
Average $227,715 16.4 14.9

LCS and LEC Spring 2020 regular season, weeks 1 to 8

If the average salary has been $227,715, then a $400,000 salary is 1.76 times higher than average. In other words, we want a player/team with $400,000 salary to score 1.76 times more points than average, which is 28.8 points per game (or 57.6 points in a weekend).

If we’re basing our selections on points per $100k, then a player who scores the average (32.8 points for the weekend) at the league average salary is worth roughly 14.4 points per $100k. The $400k player who scored 57 points would also be worth 14.4 points per $100k.

The question then becomes: how likely is it that the $400k player will score fewer than 57 points, and how likely is it that the $228k player will score above 32.8 points? Your expected answer to that question will tell you which player to select.

(As a note, our actual average points per $100k has been 14.9, slightly higher than 14.4, due to minor adjustments in the salary system over the course of E1 Fantasy’s inaugural split. This is an imperfect science!)

Where to Find Value for Your Fantasy Dollar

A couple of trends to note throughout the following tables:

  • Money gets rewarded best in Bot (average 17.1 points per $100k) and Mid (average 16.2 points per $100k).
  • Budget picks can deliver great value! Schalke 04 and CLG players are consistently at or near the top of the value tables.

Top Lane

In the Top lane, there have been several players who consistently outperform the 14.4 target.

Odoamne leads the way, putting up respectable numbers while being consistently priced low due to his team’s weak performances. In week 8 he’s priced at $220k while playing against strong opponents in G2 and Rogue, which shows how much his value has climbed in recent weeks.

sOAZ and Cabochard sit fourth in points per $100k, largely due to having the lowest average salary of any Top laner. Their 10.9 and 10.1 points per week are very poor, but they have actually been some of the best bargains. If they have a chance of winning at least one game in the weekend, and drafting one of them allows you to go after a higher-priced target elsewhere, they are very much worth a look!

Best-Value Fantasy Top Laners, LCS/LEC Spring 2020

Player Team Role Avg. Salary Pts. per Week Pts. per $100k
Odoamne S04 Top $165,000 16.1 20.38
Dan Dan MSF Top $218,750 17.9 18.94
Ruin CLG Top $198,750 16.8 17.89
sOAZ IMT Top $132,500 10.9 16.46
Cabochard VIT Top $137,059 10.1 16.39
Broken Blade TSM Top $253,750 20.0 16.14
Orome MAD Top $221,250 16.7 15.06
Kumo EG Top $230,000 15.6 15.00
Expect XL Top $226,250 16.1 14.05
Hauntzer GG Top $187,500 12.5 13.84
Bwipo FNC Top $310,000 20.6 13.75
Ssumday 100 Top $235,000 15.7 13.53
Alphari OG Top $315,294 19.7 13.19
V1per FLY Top $240,000 15.3 13.13
Sacre SK Top $165,714 10.0 13.05
Wunder G2 Top $350,000 22.0 12.46
Finn RGE Top $260,000 15.5 11.99
Licorice C9 Top $320,000 18.6 11.75
Huni DIG Top $213,750 11.9 11.46
Impact TL Top $256,250 13.5 10.95

LCS and LEC Spring 2020 regular season, weeks 1 to 8

Jungle

In the jungle, Akaadian has come on strong as a value pick, putting up high points per week while being charged out at a below-average salary.

Shad0w is noteworthy as one of the few high-value choices with an above-average salary. Not only is he a good bargain, but he’s straight-up a good performer.

Shockingly, Jankos ranks 8th for value despite being consistently assigned very high salaries.

Best-Value Fantasy Junglers, LCS/LEC Spring 2020

Player Team Role Avg. Salary Pts. per Week Pts. per $100k
Lurox S04 Jungle $150,000 18.3 25.06
Akaadian DIG Jungle $180,000 21.7 24.10
Skeanz VIT Jungle $138,235 10.4 17.61
Shad0w MAD Jungle $232,500 18.4 16.81
Wiggily CLG Jungle $181,250 14.0 16.74
Razork MSF Jungle $217,500 15.9 16.62
Meteos 100 Jungle $177,500 13.7 15.61
Jankos G2 Jungle $371,250 27.9 14.96
Santorin FLY Jungle $237,500 16.5 14.38
Grig DIG Jungle $146,667 10.3 13.83
Dardoch TSM Jungle $236,250 15.7 13.56
Blaber C9 Jungle $353,750 23.8 13.54
Caedrel XL Jungle $241,250 15.5 13.12
Xerxe OG Jungle $312,941 18.6 12.88
Shernfire TL Jungle $200,000 12.5 12.67
Selfmade FNC Jungle $300,000 18.4 12.44
Gilius S04 Jungle $205,000 12.3 12.04
Inspired RGE Jungle $261,250 15.3 11.86
Trick SK Jungle $167,500 9.2 11.62
Xmithie IMT Jungle $202,500 11.6 11.54
Svenskeren EG Jungle $256,250 14.3 11.53
Closer GG Jungle $213,750 12.0 11.36
Broxah TL Jungle $262,000 12.8 9.99

LCS and LEC Spring 2020 regular season, weeks 1 to 8

Mid Lane

Pobelter’s numbers are slightly inflated by his first week re-entering the league, since he was given a $50,000 salary and set as a Jungler due to his arrangement with Team Liquid. He put up strong numbers playing Mid, so anyone who snagged him at that discounted substitute-Jungler salary was very well rewarded. That said, his 28.65 points per $100k is so much higher than anyone else’s that he still deserves to be at the top of the list.

It makes sense to see Febiven and PowerOfEvil high on the list, given the difference between their 2019 and 2020 performances.

On the other side of the coin, some high-salary players like Nemesis and Jensen have consistently underdelivered relative to their salary levels.

Best-Value Fantasy Mid Laners, LCS/LEC Spring 2020

Player Team Role Avg. Salary Pts. per Week Pts. per $100k
Pobelter CLG Mid $155,000 20.1 28.65
Abbedagge S04 Mid $211,250 22.5 22.25
Eika IMT Mid $150,000 15.7 21.39
Febiven MSF Mid $231,250 19.6 20.66
Humanoid MAD Mid $227,500 21.1 18.93
PowerOfEvil FLY Mid $252,500 22.3 18.26
Jiizuke EG Mid $232,500 20.5 17.52
Crown CLG Mid $177,500 13.9 17.39
Ryoma 100 Mid $225,000 18.9 17.23
Bjergsen TSM Mid $275,000 21.1 15.73
Froggen DIG Mid $237,500 18.0 15.46
Larssen RGE Mid $292,500 22.2 15.40
Perkz G2 Mid $371,250 28.5 15.31
Mickey XL Mid $257,500 19.1 15.01
Nukeduck OG Mid $267,647 18.3 14.80
Saken VIT Mid $136,000 9.1 14.58
Nisqy C9 Mid $342,500 24.3 14.36
Goldenglue GG Mid $198,750 13.4 13.70
Jensen TL Mid $282,500 18.4 13.32
Jenax SK Mid $187,500 10.7 12.43
Nemesis FNC Mid $321,250 19.4 12.31
Selfie VIT Mid $130,000 0.6 1.34

LCS and LEC Spring 2020 regular season, weeks 1 to 8

Bot Lane

Innaxe is another S04 player sitting atop the value charts. He’s been a big part of the team’s turnaround, performing well while drawing low salaries.

As elsewhere, the players who draw the highest salaries have not necessarily delivered the most value per dollar. Bot laners like Zven, Rekkles, and Caps have put up big numbers, but demanded high salaries in order to do it.

With Bot lane being the highest-scoring position, it makes sense to go after the big-budget choices here, but it’s still worth considering value if you can upgrade at Mid or Jungle by taking a less heralded Bot.

Best-Value Fantasy Bot Laners, LCS/LEC Spring 2020

Player Team Role Avg. Salary Pts. per Week Pts. per $100k
Altec IMT Bot $168,000 18.4 22.72
Innaxe S04 Bot $222,500 24.1 22.11
Stixxay CLG Bot $197,143 19.1 21.06
Bvoy MSF Bot $238,750 20.6 20.67
Apollo IMT Bot $230,000 22.0 19.61
Carzzy MAD Bot $260,000 22.8 19.23
Comp VIT Bot $172,353 13.9 18.92
Patrik XL Bot $233,750 21.2 18.48
Johnsun DIG Bot $211,250 17.6 18.15
Cody Sun 100 Bot $217,500 19.5 18.08
Zven C9 Bot $323,750 28.2 17.87
WildTurtle FLY Bot $237,500 19.2 16.99
Rekkles FNC Bot $355,000 29.3 16.67
Bang EG Bot $280,000 22.7 16.19
Caps G2 Bot $381,250 30.7 16.04
Crownshot SK Bot $202,500 15.9 15.94
Upset OG Bot $344,118 24.8 15.44
Hans Sama RGE Bot $276,250 21.3 15.43
Kobbe TSM Bot $290,000 21.7 15.16
FBI GG Bot $215,000 14.7 14.09
FORG1VEN S04 Bot $206,667 13.5 12.97
Doublelift TL Bot $300,769 18.0 12.02
Tactical TL Bot $230,000 24.0 10.44

LCS and LEC Spring 2020 regular season, weeks 1 to 8

Support

Support is the most challenging value-drafting positioning. Supports average half as many points as Bot laners, but still require much more than half of the salary, so if you want to get your money’s worth you should rarely be looking near the top of the Support salary range.

It isn’t necessarily the smart play to just pay the lowest money and let the position go to waste. It’s difficult, but not impossible, to achieve the 14.4 points per $100k target at Support. There has been good value in players like Steeelback, Dreams, Smoothie, and Kaiser, with points per $100k that rival mid-tier Top laners or Junglers.

Best-Value Fantasy Supports, LCS/LEC Spring 2020

Player Team Role Avg. Salary Pts. per Week Pts. per $100k
Steeelback VIT Support $90,000 8.1 18.06
Dreams S04 Support $141,250 8.8 15.37
Smoothie CLG Support $155,000 9.7 14.26
Kaiser MAD Support $217,500 15.0 14.20
Denyk MSF Support $183,750 11.9 13.82
Mikyx G2 Support $311,250 20.7 13.43
Aphromoo DIG Support $136,250 7.7 13.23
Vander RGE Support $211,250 12.0 12.31
Vulcan C9 Support $268,750 16.4 12.24
Biofrost TSM Support $231,250 13.4 12.09
Zeyzal EG Support $238,750 13.5 12.00
Hakuho IMT Support $153,750 8.3 11.32
Destiny OG Support $257,059 12.9 11.25
Keith GG Support $103,333 4.8 10.78
Stunt 100 Support $171,250 7.6 10.52
Tore XL Support $192,500 10.1 10.51
Hylissang FNC Support $261,250 12.2 9.77
Ignar FLY Support $246,250 11.9 9.67
LiMiT SK Support $116,250 4.7 8.77
CoreJJ TL Support $232,500 9.1 8.42
Jactroll VIT Support $100,909 3.1 6.90
Huhi GG Support $70,000 0.7 1.91

LCS and LEC Spring 2020 regular season, weeks 1 to 8

Teams

MAD Lions have been the best value for Team picks, putting up the second-most points per game (because of their long, close games, which allow them to secure more towers and dragons) while being charged out at a below-average salary.

Conversely, G2 Esports have delivered some of the worst value per dollar, because despite their high salaries, they don’t play a style that leads to as many fantasy points, either ending games too quickly or, at times, throwing away games that they should have won.

Best-Value Fantasy Teams, LCS/LEC Spring 2020

Player Role Avg. Salary Pts. per Week Pts. per $100k
MAD Lions Team $217,500 22.0 20.62
Evil Geniuses Team $233,750 21.1 18.39
Golden Guardians Team $176,250 14.3 17.76
Dignitas Team $178,750 13.8 16.78
Cloud9 Team $342,500 27.5 16.29
SK Gaming Team $148,750 11.1 15.23
Origen Team $290,588 20.2 15.00
FlyQuest Team $228,750 16.3 14.97
Team SoloMid Team $267,500 18.9 14.24
Excel Esports Team $236,250 16.6 13.93
G2 Esports Team $317,500 21.7 13.67
Counter Logic Gaming Team $215,000 13.4 13.48
Team Vitality Team $120,000 8.6 7.41
Team SoloMid Team $267,500 18.9 7.12
Origen Team $290,588 20.2 7.02
Excel Esports Team $236,250 16.6 6.96
G2 Esports Team $317,500 21.7 6.83
Counter Logic Gaming Team $215,000 13.4 6.74
Fnatic Team $326,250 21.8 6.67
Team Liquid Team $278,750 16.4 6.00

LCS and LEC Spring 2020 regular season, weeks 1 to 8

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