Originally published at: https://esportsone.com/blog/pick-avoid-groups-1-worlds-2020/
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This is the World Championship! This is big time! So, of course, you need to be able to answer the most important question there is: Who do I pick? And of course; Who do I NOT pick? Well, you hold the final choice, but I stuck my head deep in spreadsheets and refused to emerge until I had some educated suggestions to help you win your own World Championship! Choose wisely!
Stop sleeping on Gen.G. Just because they don’t have a #1 next to their name doesn’t mean they aren’t a threat. Rascal is incredibly talented on his own, but his set up for the week should allow him to flaunt that talent to the max. TSM’s Broken Blade may be a solid battle, but the other two Tops average more Deaths than Kills and have served as liabilities to their teams all year.
Doran – DRX $260,000 (Group D)
Averages more Deaths than Kills and is dead last in the position in Assists. It is no wonder that he is dead last in PTS/L at the position. Doran’s profile makes him a liability to your lineup, like he has been at times for DRX.
You want every part of Top Esports that you can afford. Affording them is the tough part, though. Karsa is 1 of 2 TES players that are priced outside the Top 3 at the position, making him about as affordable of a TES investment as you can. The real value comes from the fact that TES should probably see the most amount of Kills on the week. They have the 2nd highest CKPM, and the 1st highest is also in their group (UOL). With a lot of Kills on the way, get the player who will be involved in more of them than anybody else, the Jungler.
Peanut – LGD Gaming $280,000 (Group C)
Before the tournament, I would’ve thought that Peanut for $280k was an absolute steal! But after watching LGD in Play-Ins, I may have developed a Peanut-allergy…
The more I look around at the Mid Lane options, the more I realize that it is about to be a BIG Caps week! Below Knight, Caps is the only Mid I absolutely cannot poke a hole in. He has been playing out of his mind lately, leading the entire position in average Points in Wins (35.7). G2’s biggest challenge in their group is Suning, and Mid Lane is their weak spot. Fire up Caps!
Nomanz – Unicorns of Love $290,000 (Group D)
UOL is super fun and all, but Nomanz is going to go against one of Knight, Chovy and PowerOfEvil in lane for every single game of groups… You are going to have a bad time.
Ruler is a sneaky pick to not only lead the position in scoring this week but to lead every single player in scoring! He leads the position in Kills/game (5.2), and his 3rd place rank in average Points in Wins shows that he clearly is Gen.G’s win condition. While, yes, Group C is very competitive, I expect Gen.G to be a comfortable 1st in the Group and looking down on all the other teams fighting it out for the second seed.
Perkz – G2 Esports $320,000 (Group A)
This call hurts to write, but I don’t feel guilty after watching him be First Blood victim in pretty much every single LEC Playoff game. He may have been able to recover from that in the LEC, but Worlds teams will punish that differently. I love G2, but Perkz is the G2 player I’d least like to invest in.
I said it once, and I’ll say it again; you want all the Top Esports players you can get. A schedule consisting of guaranteed wins and lots of Kills is a dream for a Support. Losses hurt them drastically, but they also don’t care who gets the actual Kill, as they are happy to rack up the Assists. Yuyanjia is in a great spot, as he will often be.
BeryL – DAMWON Gaming (Group B) $170,000
As I just touched on, Supports are the players that are negatively affected the most by a loss. BeryL is the most expensive Support on the slate, which I am running from because I don’t even see DAMWON going 3-0 this week with JD on the schedule.
When it comes to predictions as to who will win the entire tournament, I am hearing the same two teams from all the experts I talk to: Top Esports and JD Gaming. TES is $330k this week, and the only reason JDG isn’t the same price is that people are higher on DAMWON than any of TES’s opponents. Well if you believe in JDG winning that matchup, then you are able to get one of the (maybe) two 3-0 teams while avoiding buying one of the four most expensive options.
DRX $290,000 (Group D)
I know for a fact that DRX won’t be beating Top Esports this week. And the most I look into them, I can’t even confidently say that they are far and away better than Flyquest or Unicorns of Love. Don’t pay this much for a team that has a strong chance of going 1-2.